Estimating Future Long-distance Passenger Travel Demand Up to 2050 Utilising the System Dynamics Based Model Luna
P C Pfaffenbichler, G Emberger, Vienna University of Technology, AT; S Shepherd ITS, University of Leeds, UK
Estimating future long-distance passenger travel demand up to 2050 utilising the System Dynamics based model LUNA (Simulating the demand for Long-distance travel Using a Non-OD-matrix based Approach).
The System Dynamics based long-distance travel demand model LUNA (Simulating the demand for Long-distance travel Using a Non-OD-matrix based Approach) was developed in the framework of the EU funded research project ORIGAMI (Optimal Regulation and Infrastructure for Ground, Air and Maritime Interfaces). The model LUNA will be used to forecast and evaluate long-distance passenger travel demand of EU27 citizens for the purposes holiday, visiting friends and family and business up to the year 2050. LUNA consists of three sub-models: a population cohort model, a household formation model and a non-OD-matrix based transport demand model. The population development is modelled in 18 age groups in five year time steps. The population of the different age groups is assigned to ten different household types and three household income groups. The transport sub-model takes into account five different modes: private car, bus/coach, railway, air and maritime. A comparison of different outcome indicators of the model LUNA with observed data from different sources was carried out in order to estimate model parameters and to test the quality of the model predictions. The paper aims at presenting the results for different scenarios concerning socio-demographic, economic and technological developments and transport policies. For the baseline scenario LUNA forecasts the highest growth in demand for long-distance holiday travel for the mode air followed by the mode car. A significant decline in demand is predicted for the modes rail and coach for the longer distance bands (1,000 kilometres and more). A comparison of the demand forecasts by country shows significant differences as well between the different modes as between the different countries. Demand for air travel is increasing in all countries except Germany and Portugal. In these two countries the declining population outweighs the demand increasing effects of economic development and decreasing air fares. It can be concluded that the main drivers of long-distance holiday travel are population and economic trends. Nevertheless their effects are superimposed by the effects of travel times and travel costs. E.g. the relative widespread decline of rail and coach can be attributed to user costs, which are predicted to increase relative to the modes air and car. The mode coach is furthermore affected by the assumption of increasing congestion.
Association for European Transport