Effects of a 400 Kph Rail Network Across Europe with the Use of the DLR-developed Next Generation Train (NGT)
T Schumann, German Aerospace Center (DLR), DE
The market potential in Europe for the NGT has been analyzed. The traffic model consists of 3 scenarios: real traffic in 2010, future traffic in 2025 and traffic with a fictional European-wide NGT network, from which promising lines are identified.
The Next Generation Train (NGT) is a research project for a new type of high speed train.It is developed by DLR (German Aerospace Center), in which 7 institutes with their specialised knowledge are involved. The train is designed for an operational speed of 400 kph. Due to its light body structure and double-deck concept, it has lower specific energy consumption than a conventional high speed train, like the ICE3. Within the scope of the project the geography and the present and future rail network of the western, northern, southern and middle European countries were analysed and an imaginary NGT network was created in order to verify how this train speed can develop effect in Europe.
There has been created a traffic model in the first step to identify the potential of a high-speed train with a speed of 400 kph. All European cities with more than 80.000 inhabitants and some smaller ones were included in the model (2.000 cities all in all). All railway lines that connect these cities were included in the model, differentiated to High-Speed, Intercity and regional traffic. The model network has a length of 142.000 km. The connecting rail lines were broken down to the level of train lines to allow the calculation of train transfer resistances in the traffic model. Furthermore, all lines were defined with travel times. The model was calibrated with data of Eurostat and the UIC railway statistics. The result is a detailed picture of the present passenger numbers, relations and travel speeds in Europe. Furthermore, the transfer connections in hub stations can be quantified. These numbers are basic for the formation of future train lines in the next steps to reduce train changes.
In the second step the model was extended to a high-probable network in the year 2025. Especially in France and Spain the network grows rapidly with big impact on the passenger numbers. The future network was in the third step extended with an imaginary NGT network which was developed with strict rules, so that important cities were connected and the network size remains acceptable. The result of the calculation of this NGT traffic model shows the not yet exploited potential in European high-speed rail traffic.
Association for European Transport