Mode Choice in Commuting - an Anlysis of Factors That Can Reduce the Car Use
Elise Caspersen, Institute of Transport Economics (TOI)
This paper discuss if it's possible to reduce the use of car in commuting, and if so, what instruments that can be used to achieve this goal. The analysis is done with a multinomial logisitc model.
The past decades urbanization and immigration have increased the population growth. Together with higher standard of living and higher average income this can be said to explain some of the observed overall increase in the need, desire and ability to travel (Hjorthol, 2012). In addition, higher income have been shown to increase the car use (Hjortol, 2012), so that a higher percent of the trips are done by car, intensify the trend with more cars in traffic. This trend leads to problems like congestion, queue, increased travel time, delays etc., which further gives environmental, monetary and social costs.
This paper discusses some ways to reduce the use of car. The discussion is based on a study of travel behavior for commuters in Oslo and Akershus, using a multinomial logistic model estimated from travel survey data and data from transport models as a tool for analysis. The idea is to evaluate the change in the probability to choose a set of transport modes when changing some of the factors influencing choice of mode and car use.
The goal has been to analyze and evaluate which explanatory factors that have a significant impact on the choice of mode in commuting. Special interest have been on factors that reduce the probability to choose a car, or increase the use of public transport, cycle and walking. The model includes both variables that contains information about the informant and about the available transport modes. It is used to evaluate how the probability to choose a set of modes depends on the explanatory variables, and an example is how the probability to drive a car to work will change (fall) when reducing the individual’s car access and the access to parking close to the workplace. In addition, it is also possible, and of interest, to evaluate if and how the probability to drive a car to work will change when the decrease in the ease of car use is combined with an improvement in public transport, reflected by higher frequency and lower costs.
If presented, the model will be discussed in two parts. First a short presentation of the assumptions and data behind the model and how it is estimated. Second it will be given some examples of how the model can be used to analyze what actions that seem to have a significant impact on reducing the use of cars in commuting in favor of public transport and/or walking/cycling. Both individual and mode specific factors will be discussed.
Association for European Transport