Revision of Project Evaluation As Part of the German Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan
Prof. Dr. Christoph Walther, PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG and Bauhaus University Weimar, Dipl.-Ing. Jana Monse, Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Dr. Hendrik Hassheider, Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure
The paper describes the procedure of setting up the new German Transport Infrastructure Plan 2015. It provides an overview of the revision of CBA and reports in detail on enhancements regarding VTTS, reliability and pre-check of investment costs.
On the European Transport Conference (ETC) 2013, some presentations dealt with project appraisal methodologies from different European countries on the national level (France: E. Quinet et al., Norway and Sweden: M. Welde et al., UK: T. Worseley). The report of
“A comparative study of English transport appraisal practice with equivalent practice in other countries” (T. Worseley) referred - concerning the state of art in Germany - mainly to the methodology of the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (FTIP) 2003. This gave the impetus to the authors to report on ongoing developments in Germany in the course of the 2015 update of FTIP.
2. OVERVIEW OF GERMAN FTIP PROCEDURE
The FTIP serves as a basis for the development and upgrade of transport infrastructure. Project ideas are developed in due consideration of the volume of traffic predicted in traffic forecasts. In addition, FTIP establishes the share of total investment allocated to maintenance, which increased to 56% in the FTIP 2003. The main criteria for the prioritization of transport infrastructure investment have been formulated for FTIP 2015 as follows:
• Priority for reinforcement of existing infrastructure
• Focus on investment that is positive from a macro-economic perspective
• Removing bottlenecks.
The full paper will aim to describe briefly the complex procedure of setting up a new FTIP from the announcement of project ideas to the acceptance of the plan by the federal government.
3. ENHANCEMENT OF RELEVANT CBA-COMPONENTS
As part of FTIP 2015, the methodology for project appraisal is being revised. In this context, the Federal Ministry for Transport and Digital Infrastructure (Ministerium für Verkehr und Digitale Infrastruktur – BMVI) commissioned research projects concerning the following topics:
• General review of CBA and environmental assessment procedures
• Provisions to check the plausibility of investment cost
• Concepts of reliability and integration in CBA
• Enhanced consideration of induced traffic and modal shift in transport modelling and CBA
• Values of travel time savings (VTTS) and values of reliability (VoR) for passenger and freight transport.
This contribution provides a short overview of the enhancement of CBA in general and reports in detail on the development of relevant indicators, which have the highest influence on the results of CBA.
Empirically, the monetized travel time savings generate the biggest contribution to the overall benefit of a considered infrastructure project. The VTTSs for passenger transport applied in FTIPs so far were extrapolations from Dutch values from the late eighties. Hence, considerable RP- and SP-surveys were carried out for the 2015 update. Passenger transport was sub-divided into different trip purposes. The freight transport aimed to present VTTSs for different commodity groups, which have been neglected in the FTIP methodology so far. The paper explains the concept of the survey and presents the main results.
For quite some time „reliability in transport systems“ is gaining more and more attention by transport planners, economists and the public, and politicians are called to invest in reliable transport systems. Therefore, the new FTIP had to provide a methodology to capture the effects of new or enlarged infrastructure on network’s reliability.
There is no internationally accepted substantial knowledge on reliability in the transport sector. For instance, not every trip being delayed is non-reliable, whereas the daily occurring congestion can be characterized as reliable. Reliability can be defined as deviation from the mean value, and delays have to be taken into account as well as arrivals earlier than planned or scheduled. Mathematically, these deviations can be described by distributions of travel times. This paper provides for every mode of transport an adequate definition of reliability and shows possible approaches for integrating reliability in transport modelling and in the concept of CBA. Values of reliability (VoR) were surveyed simultaneously with the VTTS. Differences between VTTS and VoR will be explained in the full paper.
Until now revisions of assessment methodologies focused mainly on benefit components. However, ex-post evaluations show that especially investment costs pose high risk to the stability of benefit-cost ratios. FTIP 2015 will therefore include a pre-check for all estimated investment costs. The full paper will present results of ex-post analysis of cost development and the line of action to verify investment costs using early stage engineering and environmental planning procedures.
Since the revision of the methodology for project appraisals will be finished by the end of March, it can be expected, that short examples can be given in the full paper dealing with the comparison of results based on 2003 methodology and on 2015 methodology, respectively.
Association for European Transport