A Population Simulator and Disaggregate Choice Models for the Fourth Generation Strategic Passenger Transport Model for Flanders
Michiel De Bok, Significance, Gerard De Jong, Significance, Dana Borremans, Verkeerscentrum, Department MOW, Flemish Authorities
The paper describes some new developments in the strategic passenger transport model for Flanders. It will present the new population simulator for the Flemish situation and estimation results for the disaggregate choice models.
The strategic passenger transport model for Flanders and the corresponding provincial transport models are being re-developed. The new transport model version 4.1 is tour-based, meaning that most of the submodels refer to round trips. Both home-based and non-home-based tours are distinguished and also the distinction is made between primary and secondary tour destinations. The tour-based model will have most of the functionalities of activity-based models.
The re-development involves among other things the estimation of disaggregate models of travel demand:
• tour frequency choice;
• mode, destination and time-of-day choice.
There will be separate models for adults versus children, different travel purposes and working days versus weekend days. These models have been estimated on data from the Flemish travel surveys, a specific shopping travel survey and a stated preference survey on mode and time-of-day choice.
In the model system these choice models are after a calibration to traffic counts, combined with assignment for cars, trucks and public transport.
In application of the model system, these choice models are applied at the level of individual persons using discrete micro-simulation instead of sample enumeration. The evolution of the size and composition of the population over time, which is an input to the travel demand models, is determined in a newly developed population simulator. This starts from the set of individuals in the full population of the study area (Flanders plus Brussels), based on the 2001 national Census. It simulates (year-by-year) the following dynamic transitions until the model base year (2011) and beyond (for a future scenario):
• birth and death;
• internal and external migration;
• changes in person status (pupil, student, working, non/working, retired);
• changes in relation status within a household (child, single, living together in some group, co-habitation, married). This includes a two-sided matching model for cohabitating/married partners.
The paper will present an international review of the work done in transport on dynamic population simulators and a description of the new population simulator for the Flemish situation. It will also present estimation results for the disaggregate choice models and key results (e.g. elasticities) for the model.
Association for European Transport