Use of Local Vs. National Data when Planning Public Transport Improvements: Results from a Choice Experiment from Five City Regions in Norway
Arnstein Øvrum, Urbanet Analyse, Ingunn O. Ellis, Urbanet Analyse, Bård Norheim, Urbanet Analyse
We report results from a choice experiment on the demand for public transport (PT) in Norway, focusing on whether preferences for different PT attributes vary across five different city regions. We discuss use of local vs. national WTP estimates.
This paper reports the results of a choice experiment on the demand for public transport (PT) in five city regions in Norway – Oslo/Akershus, Kristiansand, Stavanger, Ålesund and Tromsø. These city regions vary in size (approximately 70,000 to 1,200,000 inhabitants) and thus in their level and quality of PT services. The choice experiment was conducted as part of an internet survey during fall 2013, and the total sample consists of 7,236 adult respondents. We investigate to what extent preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for different PT attributes (fare, travel time, delay, transfer, crowding, etc.) vary across the different city regions. Next we simulate how a quality improvement in PT services (improved traffic flow for buses) would affect demand in each city region using both local and average/national WTP estimates. We find that the expected effects of quality improvement on PT demand are sensitive to choice of WTP estimate. For example, when we use average WTP estimates from all five city regions, improved traffic flow for buses is expected to increase PT demand about equally in Stavanger and Kristiansand city regions. On the other hand, when we instead use local WTP estimates, PT demand is expected to increase by seven percentage points more in Stavanger than Kristiansand (PT demand up by 17 and 10 percent, respectively). Our results highlight the need for conducting local level surveys and analyses when planning to improve PT services in specific city regions, such that the most effective quality improvements can be identified and implemented.
Association for European Transport