The Recent Development of the Dutch Regional and National Models
Dusica Krstic Joksimovic, Public Works and Water Management, Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment, Frank Hofman, Public Transport and Water Management
This paper deals with the recent developments of the new generation Dutch national en regional models, used to make forecasts for the long term future of mobility in general and the traffic and transport conditions in particular.
This paper deals with the recent developments of the new generation Dutch national en regional models, used to make forecasts for the long term future of mobility in general and the traffic and transport conditions in particular. The models are used for two main purposes: a) answering policy questions regarding e.g. major infrastructure investments, and b) to forecast the effect of regional infrastructure projects in the exploration and planning phase.
The overall focus of this paper is to describe the latest developments with respect to model development, generation of the input data for this new base year as well as re-estimation of the discrete choice models using recent National Travel survey and Stated Preference (SP) data. In addition to the efforts for building a more recent base year for the models there have also been a number of other model improvements.
The most significant model improvements are: improvement of modeling of the traffic networks in the big cities, harmonization of the capacities of the traffic networks according to recent knowledge with respect to highway capacity values, significant improvement of the quality of the public transport data. In regard to the improvement of the model techniques, the calibration process of the base year matrices is adapted (using more information and more detailed quality targets), better controlled and documented to assure enough quality. Further improvements have been made in the modeling of traffic traveling abroad (besides Schiphol airport a few other important regional airports are included in the model).
The development of a new generation of strategic models covering the whole country is a very complex project in terms of project organization, collaboration of different stakeholders, accommodating opposite interests of involved parties, etc. In such a project the high level of collaboration of different stakeholders is needed. Additionally, a quality control of the model as whole (as well as the parts of the model) is improved that ensures that every improvement or update of the model and information is reliable.
In the paper the structure of models for the national and regional level is explained. Next, the most important innovations and improvements regarding to the previous version of the models are described. Further, the process of quality control in the project as well as the process of collaboration of different stakeholders is outlined. Finally, some examples will be used to illustrate the improvements of the updated model system.
Association for European Transport