Tokyo - Modelling the Impact of Transport on Development
SALTER M P, Marcial Echenique and Partners Ltd, UK, SAITO H, Appraisal CO, Japan and LLORENS L, Marcial Echenique y Compania, Spain
JapanÕs Kanto Region covers a radius of some 80 kilometres from TokyoÕs traditional central business district (CBD). Made up of five prefectures (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Ibaraki and Chiba) the region is home to some 12 million households, 17 million emp
JapanÕs Kanto Region covers a radius of some 80 kilometres from TokyoÕs traditional central business district (CBD). Made up of five prefectures (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Ibaraki and Chiba) the region is home to some 12 million households, 17 million employees, and sees more than 35 million passenger trips per day.
In 1995, Marcial Echenique and Partners (ME&ÛÕ) of Cambridge England, Marcial Echenique y Cia SA (MECSA) of Bilbao Spain, and Appraisal CO of Tokyo Japan collaborated to produce MEMOTO, the MEPLAN model of Tokyo. The aim of the project was to develop a pilot land use and transport computer model to demonstrate that such a system could be made operative for the Kanto Region. The model was initially used to examine two alternative scenarios on development in Tokyo and its hinterland. These included a Òbusiness as usualÓ reference case in which a continuation of past macro trends was assumed, followed by a test to examine the impact of a new railway line, the Joban Line. The proposed Joban Line will provide a major new rail connection from the north east of the Kanto Region into the heart of TokyoÕs CBD with new stations to serve intermediate areas.
MEMOTO used the MEPLAN software (outlined in section 2 below) to represent the interaction between transport and land use patterns in the region. Although a fully interactive model was created, considering both land use and transport and the connections between the two, this paper focuses on the mechanisms and results from the land use model since this is perhaps the most novel element of MEPLAN and MEMOTO. This paper discusses the software and some of the technical background before turning to consider the calibration of the model. The key findings on the forecast future evolution of development of the Kanto Region are then considered for the two scenarios, and conclusions are then drawn.
Association for European Transport