Estimating Driving Conditions Effect in Route Choice at Developing Countries



Estimating Driving Conditions Effect in Route Choice at Developing Countries

Authors

Andre Duarte, VTM Consultores Em Engenharia E Planeamento, Miguel Sena E Silva, VTM Consultores Em Engenharia E Planeamento, Nuno Soares Ribeiro, VTM Consultores Em Engenharia E Planeamento

Description

For a more precise road network assignment in transportation modelling it is essential to correctly include and estimate the main parameters that influence driver’s behavior in the route choice process.

Abstract

Towards a more precise road network assignment in transportation modelling it is essential to correctly include and estimate the main parameters that influence driver’s behavior in the route choice process. In general, drivers tend to choose an alternative route which maximizes utility and/or minimizes cost perception, this being commonly a function of travel time saving, driving costs and tolls. However each transport infrastructure faces a specific behavioral and operational framework in which certain endogenous characteristics might significantly impact route choice.

Here we present two estimates of route choice utility functions which, in addition to the state of practice components, such as time and cost, include an attribute representative of driving conditions. The first exercise, conducted in Mozambique, includes the "Road Condition" attribute, aiming to incorporate and differentiate the effect of an unpaved road from a paved one. This effect is particularly important in developing a road network, with a significant presence of unpaved or degraded roads, such as the road network in this region. This attribute allows estimating an average penalty per km, representing perceived cost by drivers on bad pavement roads, apart from increases in travel time / speed reduction inherent cost.

At the second exercise, held in São Paulo, Brazil, the “Driving Condition” variable was the extension of km driven in a double or single lane road.

The willingness to pay for travelling on two-lane roads represents a distinctive users’preference for two lane roads, in equal travel time and cost conditions, hence distinctively valuating driving comfort and safety associated to these networks.

In both exercises various users’ segmentations are presented, since both models had a significant preference heterogeneity between different classes of vehicles, distances travelled and trip purposes.

Publisher

Association for European Transport