Cycle Choice Modelling in the City of Chelmsford
Shaleen Srivastava, Jacobs, Csaba Kelen, Jacobs
Bicycle infrastructure appraisal warrants a fully evidence-based approach to cyclists’ choice modelling. This paper describes the data collection, specification and estimation of cycle mode choice and route choice models in the City of Chelmsford.
A steady growth in urban cycle travel has been fuelled by better cycling infrastructure, healthy lifestyles, as well as increasing public transport costs and traffic congestion in the UK in the past decade. At the same time, the treatment of bicycle travel in strategic multi-modal modelling has been relatively simplistic in most city models to date. As part of the increasing attention given to active travel modes, the appraisal of new cycle infrastructure warrants a fully evidence-based approach to cyclists’ choice modelling.
This paper describes the process of data collection, model specification and model estimation for a cycle mode choice and a cycle route choice model to be developed for the City of Chelmsford. The data were acquired through a mail-back revealed preference (RP) and subsequent electronic stated preference (SP) surveys among the general public. In addition, cyclist route data is being collected by a panel survey conducted via smartphone apps, disseminated among cyclists.
The analysis of cycle mode choice behaviour will be done by using econometric choice models and will include traveller-specific and trip-specific variables. The mode choice model will be based on RP and SP data. Model specification is expected to be of hierarchical logit structure, where the choice set will include pedestrians, cyclists, bus/train riders, car drivers and combined (P&R) travellers. The goal of the model is to estimate a set of utility functions for various travel purposes with proper treatment of non-motorized modes.
The route choice model will be based on collating RP, SP and panel data. A choice set will be developed by identifying used and unused route options. The analysis of cycle route choice behaviour will be done by using econometric choice models and will include rider- specific, route-specific and trip-specific variables. The preferred model for discrete choices is the multi-nominal logic model. The goal of the model estimation is to develop a variety of bicycle generalized cost functions, most likely by journey purpose and/or user type.
Association for European Transport