Influencing the Extent of Motorised Traffic in Great Britain in 2006
FOWKES A S, NASH C A, MAY A D, REES P H and SIU Y L, University of Leeds, UK
This paper investigates the effects on mileage by public and private transport in 2006 of various measures that have been proposed to restrain the use of the private car. Such restraint might be expected to result in certain environmental benefits, but it
This paper investigates the effects on mileage by public and private transport in 2006 of various measures that have been proposed to restrain the use of the private car. Such restraint might be expected to result in certain environmental benefits, but it is not the purpose of the present paper to argue for such restraint, merely to assess the likely relative effectiveness of the various proposed measures. In order to do this we form a base 2006 projection for Great Britain with each tested measure being shown as a deviation from this. The base 2006 projection is by no means a forecast. It merely attempts to project the 1985 to 1993 trends through to 2006, whereas we already know that the government have implemented new policies (for instance the large cutback in the roads building programme and the 5% pa real increase in fuel duties).
The two essential elements of our research project were the preparation of a 2006 base projection and the assessment of the likely effects on this of the various policy measures. The project used data from various NTS surveys, as discussed in section 2, to determine trip rates by person type. Projections of population by area type were derived from data supplied by OPCS and their Welsh and Scottish equivalents, supplemented by a breakdown into car available and car non-available persons, as explained in section 3. That section also explains how the trip rates by person type were projected. By combining the populations projections with the trip rate projections we arrived at our base mileage projections for 2006.
In order to allow for the effects of the various policy measures, the literature was searched for guidance. Most of this came in the form of elasticities and cross-elasticities, mostly from Goodwin (1992), and these had to be applied with some care. Application of the methodology gave our results, as reported in section 5. Our method for doing this is described in section 4.
Association for European Transport