Exploration of the Impact of EV Policies on Vehicle Registrations, GHG-emissions and CBA
Matthias Kloetzke, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Judith Kurte, KEC-CONSULT, Jan-André Buehne, Federal Highway Research Institute (BAST)
Market assessment, EV policies, scenario analysis, CBA
Carbon emission regulation of the European passenger car fleet will come into effect shortly. To reduce carbon emissions, electric vehicles are widely seen as one of the promising options. However, the effect of regulation on the possible deployment paths of electric vehicles, emission reduction and on economic factors like employment and international competitiveness has not been examined in detail yet.
This article presents a two-step analysis of regulation fostering the deployment of electric vehicles, e.g. taxation schemes, sales premiums, etc. In a first step, scenarios for different regulatory frameworks are created for several countries in the European Union (i.e. Finland, Germany and Poland). For each scenario, the deployment path of electric vehicles is simulated by a detailed agent-based vehicle technology choice model (VECTOR21). The model’s results allow the analysis of technology diffusion into the passenger car fleet and, thus, the carbon emission reduction potential of electric vehicles. From this result an upscale to the entire vehicle market of the European Union is calculated. In addition to the vehicle sales, the diffusion to the vehicle stock in the respective countries as well as the European Union is estimated. In a second step, the scenario results for the passenger car fleet are used in a socio-economic cost-benefit evaluation of the impacts of the market diffusion of electric vehicles. The benefits encompass environmental effects and fuel consumption savings, which are expressed in monetary terms. Hence, the economic analysis is able to show the effectiveness of different sets of policy measures supporting the introduction of electric vehicles. The operation method of the analysis is shown on real data for Germany.
Association for European Transport