Bigdata and Nowcasting in Freight Transport
Arnaud Burgess, Panteia, Ruairidh Smith, Panteia
Panteai/NEA has developed a Transportindex (transportindex.nl) for the Netherlands. It provides an index for the performance of all modes of transport in freight transport.
Bigdata and nowcasting
Panteai/NEA has developed a Transportindex (transportindex.nl) for the Netherlands. It provides an index for the performance of all modes of transport in freight transport. On a daily basis transport data are collected and reported the next morning in the form of an index, just like the NYSE. We gather data from AES transponders for maritime and inland waterways, for rad from the National Data Warehouse for Traffic Information (NDW) and information received from the largest railway operator in the Netherlands DBSchenker. The collection of data elements has an aspect of bigdata; the selection and processing of TB’s of data each day which are condensed to comparable information sets is a challenge.
The central idea behind the index is that we are providing a “nowcast”. As traditional data on traffic performance are supplied with great delays; i.e. statistical offices report at best one year later. In current times with more volatility in transport markets, more accurate and recent information is necessary; i.e. the present situation is the best forecast for tomorrow.
The data are collected on a daily basis and is a complete automated process. The data of different census points are aggregated to a daily value and are combined to an index with weights attached to the four components.. For the index weights have been established. For that purpose an index board has been established to determine the weights. They have been established on the volume of transport in the Netherlands.
Data are collected since June 2011, the index was published one year later so that already for analysts time series could be made and comparisons with the previous year could be made. Also this one year period of withholding publication was used for testing and testing robustness of processes.
The transportindex.nl website is quite successful with more than 2000 daily visits. It is being consulted by transport companies, truck manufacturers, and stock market analysts. Also data is used for off-spring products such as monitoring the kilometre production of the freight vehicle park..
The paper will show analyses of trends over the period 2011-2014. It shows for example that increasingly bigger maritime vessels are employed. Further the fluctuations during the year which are quite constant but on different
The initiative for the index will be extended to Europe. Different techniques will be applied in order to get a European coverage. The paper will elaborate these.
Association for European Transport