Stimulating Asset Management Strategies for Climate Change and Its Impact on Roads
Srirama Bhamidipati, Delft University of Technology, Telli Van Der Lei, Delft University of Technology
Often climate change impacts on roads focus on extreme events. However, there are slow, subtle changes in climate that appear hidden but still have an impact. We highlight these impacts on roads from an asset management perspective using simulations.
In recent years, we have experienced many extreme weather events, likely to be a result of climate change, on our infrastructures. Sustained impacts damage our critical infrastructures like roads, which can have serious implications on accessibility and economy of the region. While these extreme events are more visible and important to consider, they are only a part of long-term changes in climate. Other slow and subtle climate changes, such as an increase or decrease in precipitation and changes in duration of extreme temperatures also challenge the traditional asset management strategies to deal with road deterioration. We focus on these long-term slow changes and their effects on conventional predictive maintenance plans. It is common to explore such changes in static scenario-based approaches, but these limit the inclusion of randomness to capture the uncertainty in climate and also the cumulative impacts on assets over time. We therefore suggest using dynamic simulation approaches. We take an agent-based modelling approach and compare it with other approaches. In our simulations, asset management decisions can change during and along with the evolving changes in climate. We simulate asset managers as intelligent agents taking investment decisions and compare them with decision-making models currently being practised by asset managers. We apply our methodology to a road network with road users and asset managers, all acting under the influence of long-term changes in climate. This approach can help us to learn how asset managers can integrate climate change into their strategies by adapting and understanding consequences of various budgeting and investment decisions.
Association for European Transport