Analysis of Investments in Brazilian Waterways: Evaluation of Alternatives Using Real Options.
Eliezé Bulhões De Carvalho, National Department of Transport Infrastructure, Graziela Moura, University of Brasilia, Carlos Henrique Marques Da Rocha, University of Brasilia
This article aims to describe the investment environment for the Brazilian waterway in recent years, and the analysis of a dredging project using the real options as an alternative to feasibility studies for future investments in Brazil.
In recent years, Brazil has advanced in the quest to reduce its logistical problems. Earlier this century, the Federal Government created the Growth Acceleration Plan, a program that has already allocated investments of 500 billion reais ( 200 billion dollars) for the resumption of economic growth. This program guaranteed investments in roads, rails, ports, airports and waterways exclusively with federal budget. The Government reformed the road network, conducted duplication works in important federal highways linking the northeastern states of Brazil and restructured federal highways within the country. In the airport sector, the Government reformed major airports, and in the rail sector investments were made in rail contours in various city. For the port sector the capacity of ports was increased through works of dredging and expansion of docks. In the waterway sector resources have been invested in the construction of passenger and cargo terminals in the northern region of the country, which is extremely dependent on its river network for economic integration. The Government also completed the Tucuruí Locks initiated 30 years ago. Earlier this decade, the Government launched another investment program: Logistics Investment Program. Different from the Plan this new program seeks to make concessions and to establish public private partnerships for increasing infrastructure investment. However, the Logistics Investment Program has not submitted any proposal to the national waterway sector, nor has the Government indicated having alternatives to new investments on the sector. This article aims to describe the investment environment for the Brazilian waterway sector in recent years, its growth potential compared to the already used in other countries and the analysis of a dredging project to be carried out on the Tocantins River using the real options as an alternative to feasibility studies for the waterway sector and possible aid tool for future investments in waterways in Brazil.
Association for European Transport