Antonin 3, an Up-to-date Transportation Planning Model for the Ile-de-France Region
Jan Gerrit Tuinenga, Significance, Anne-Eole Meret-Conti, Syndicat Des Transports D’Ile De France (STIF), Nicolas Pauget, Syndicat Des Transports D’Ile De France (STIF)
The paper discusses Antonin 3, STIF’s transportation planning model for the Ile-de-France region. The model has recently been re-estimated and some new model components were added to address current policy issues in the region.
Antonin is the transportation planning model for the Ile-de-France region in use by the STIF (Syndicat des Transports d’Ile de France) since the end of the 90’s. STIF is the public transport authority in the Ile-de-France region (Paris region) and imagines, plans, organizes, co-ordinates and funds public transportation in the region.
Technically, Antonin is a passenger trip forecasting system designed to produce strategic tests on transport policies and analyses of the evolution of mobility due to evolution of population, travelers behavior and new public transport infrastructures. Since its inception, ANTONIN (ANalyse des Transports et de l’Organisation de Nouvelles INfrastructures) has produced numerous traffic forecasts for projects concerning all type of public transport modes (suburban railway lines, metro lines, tramway lines, bus on dedicated lines) and public transport schemes for the region as a whole.
The structure of ANTONIN is based on that of widely accepted disaggregated transport models. It uses multinomial logit models to predict the various choices made by travelers in the Ile de France region. The model is based on the EGT, a household survey focusing on transport, which is held every 8-10 years with a consistent structure over the past 4 decades.
Antonin 3 is the latest version of Antonin reflecting travelers’ behavior as recorded in the EGT 2010. Based on that EGT, the various components of the model system were re-estimated and new features were incorporated in the updated ANTONIN model. These new features comprise for instance the new motorcycle model and the availability of motorcycle (and bicycle) as a travel mode in the model system. To allow more flexibility in the definition of the various components of public Transport in the region, the Public Transport sub mode choice is now modelled at the assignment stage. However this gives more emphasis on the assignment so that a more consistent use of model parameters was required in the model system to avoid potential behavioral inconsistencies within the chain: level-of-service, mode choice and Public Transport assignment. The Public Transport assignment has been improved further by incorporating specific comfort parameters from an SP study carried out recently for the STIF. Also crowding has been taken into account at assignment stage and feedback loops have been incorporated to allow crowding and congestion to have an impact on mode choice. Given STIF’s mission these improvements are important to address the issues that STIF encounters in modelling transport in the Parisian metropolitan region.
The paper ends with a case study that shows the results of an application of the Antonin 3 model for a recently completed study in the region.
Association for European Transport