Does Weather Impact on Commutersâ€™ Travel Demand - Empirical Case Study of Belgrade
Dragana Petrovic, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Ivan Ivanovic, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Vladimir Djoric, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
Research about weather impact on transport demand and behaviour was researched in Belgrade during 2014 and 2015. Authors conducted research on travel demand through online and paper household surveys, as well as through traffic monitoring.
Traffic impact on climate change is well-known, but there is also significant climate and weather impact on transport system. Impact of climate change on transport system can be defined as cumulative impact of weather conditions on transport system. Weather impact on transport system can be defined through weather impact on: infrastructure, transport supply, transport demand and road safety.
Weather conditions are usually omitted from the research about transport demand or they are presented in a simplified manner. Weather impact on transport system should be explored at the local level. It is the only way to determine how transportation demand depends on different weather conditions.
Characteristic weather appearance in the research area is showed in the paper, based on collected data about daily weather conditions during the previous five years (2009-2014). Under various weather conditions authors conducted pilot research. Based on that pilot research, weather conditions that most directly affect the transport demand were singled out.
Weather impact on travel demand was not explored in Serbia and Balkan countries until now. Detailed research about weather impact on transport demand and travel behaviour was researched in Belgrade during 2014 and at the beginning of 2015. Authors conducted research on travel demand through online and paper household surveys, as well as through traffic monitoring. Employed Belgrade residents answered about their travel habits, travel patterns and changes that they would make because of different weather conditions through stated preference method. Employed residents were the target group, because the highest percentage of residents who have mode choice belongs to this group and also constitute a large part of the transport system users. Individual respondents picked one of given statements about weather impact on different travel purpose.
Traffic monitoring was carried out at one of the most important Belgrade urban road. It was carried out in order to determine whether and how changes in transport demand, caused by different weather conditions, affect the hour traffic volume at one city road section, i.e. traffic volume distribution and variation. Research is still in progress and in this paper the first results will be presented.
Association for European Transport