A Multi-regional Input-output Model with Elastic Trade Coefficients for the Simulation of Freight Transport Demand in Italy



A Multi-regional Input-output Model with Elastic Trade Coefficients for the Simulation of Freight Transport Demand in Italy

Authors

CASCETTA E, University of Naples and CONIGLIARO G, FINSIEL, Italy

Description

A large research project is currently under development in Italy, aimed at the development of a Decision Support System for transport policies (SISD) at the national level. The project is being supported by the Italian Ministry of Transport, General Direc

Abstract

A large research project is currently under development in Italy, aimed at the development of a Decision Support System for transport policies (SISD) at the national level. The project is being supported by the Italian Ministry of Transport, General Directorate MCTC.

The SISD is an integrated set of data-bases and simulation models for the national transport system, covering different aspects such as demand, supply, economic and external impacts both for passenger and freight (Cascetta, 1995). In the general architecture of the system, a central role is played by demand models simulating passengers and freight flows among traffic zones of Italy as well as between Italy and other Countries.

In this paper a Multi Regional Input-Output model for the simulation of level and distribution of freight demand will be described. In particular section 2 covers the general description of the freight demand model system; in section 3 the Multi Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model is presented, section 4 deals with the specification and calibration of a MNL model for the computation of elastic trade coefficients. Section 5 finally addresses the use of the MRIO model within a wider model system to obtain long term forecasts of consistent scenarios for the "exogenous" demographic and economic variables as well as for freight demand.

Publisher

Association for European Transport