Stated Preference Methods - Back to the Future
Eric Kroes, Significance and VU Universiteit Amsterdam, Rob Sheldon, Accent
In our paper we review the fist SP study in transport, reported in 1982, and compare its key elements with the current state of the art. This leads us to some unexpected conclusions.
In the early 1980’s one of the first applications of a Stated Preference (SP) method to a transport problem was presented: the estimation of service frequency elasticities for rail (Sheldon and Steer, 1982). Since then many SP studies have been carried out, and nowadays SP is one of the accepted standard methods in the toolbox of the transport planner.
In our paper we look back at Sheldon and Steer’s first SP application, and review it in the light of the many lessons that were learned in the 35 years of research that followed. We assess all key elements of the original application, including issues such as survey method, experimental design, preference elicitation, coefficient estimation, link to revealed preference behaviour, market simulation, derivation of demand elasticities, and so on. And we compare these with the state of the art in 2016. This leads us to some unexpected conclusions.
The structure of the paper is as follows:
2. Summary description of the 1982 SP study by Sheldon and Steer
3. Overview of its key methodological elements
4. Summary description of the current state of the art concerning these elements
5. Evaluation of the Sheldon and Steer study in the light of the state of the art
Sheldon, R.J. and Steer, J.K. (1982): The Use of Conjoint Analysis in Transport Research, 1982 PTRC Summer Annual Meeting, Warwick.
Kroes, E.P. and Sheldon, R.J. (1985): Stated Preference Methods: An Introduction, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, January 1988, Vol. 22, No. 1, Page 11.
Association for European Transport