Evolution of Export-led Transport Demand by Freight Category in Europe
J-IN Y, Mareial Echenique and Partners, UK
Encouraging export has frequently been mentioned as an important objective of major transport infrastructure investment. In a globalising economy, export industries that compete outside their own country/regiun often hold the key to the present and future
Encouraging export has frequently been mentioned as an important objective of major transport infrastructure investment. In a globalising economy, export industries that compete outside their own country/regiun often hold the key to the present and future fortunes of the economy. In this sense, a thorough analysis of the development of the intemational/interregionai transport demand would seem indispensable to any transport planning. Surprisingly, apart from a few frequently quoted aggregate growth percentages, it is widely recognised that we know preciously little about how this demand has evolved, and there is much uncertainty how it will continue to develop in the future. To be fair, in Europe there is a substantial amount of interregional freight data that is readily available; this would appear particularly enviable for those working with interregional passenger demand. But as soon as one starts to use the existing data, he/she comes to realise the myriad of varied definitions, aggregations, and complications, so much so that an attempt to analyse it would, more often than not, soon be brought to a halt. Here the voluminous data sources would feel like as much as a liability, especially for anyone who ploughs in the thick of it. All the same, there is clearly an urgent need for a set of well processed and documented interregional freight demand data in Europe.
This paper aims to contribute to this task by documenting lessons learnt as we work in this area. It starts by stating what we would see as a logical process of causes and effects; it then details the data we are currently working with, and proposes a procedure that may help us to derive demand data of practical use in transport planning.
Association for European Transport