Identifying Suppressors and Supporters of Electric Vehicle Uptake
Gillian Harrison, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Christian Thiel, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport
An extensive model of the EU automobile market is employed to identify sensitivities relevant to powertrain technology transition in the passenger car vehicle market.
The EC JRC Powertrain Technology Market Agent Model (PTTMAM) is an extensive system dynamics based model of the EU automobile market, encompassing four conceptual market agent groups (users, manufacturers, infrastructure, authorities), the 28 member states of the EU and both current and future powertrains of the light duty vehicle market up to 2050. In previous work, the PTTMAM has been applied to both market and policy scenarios, demonstrating flexibility in its application. The latest research has concentrated on infrastructure, and a technical report on the model has been published in order to foster interest and collaboration.
Electric powertrain vehicles may be on the brink of commercialisation; however it is still early days in the understanding of how the market will develop and what competition to expect between the new technologies as we move from the fossil fuel dominated ICEV towards numerous technological options, each offering slightly differing utilities to the user. In this paper we present to the research community policy scenarios from the PTTMAM where sensitivities to infrastructural assumptions have been explored. We build on our previous work by considering the sensitivities related to both charging (slow and fast) and hydrogen fuelling infrastructure that could suppress EV sales of passenger cars, or lead to them becoming market leaders. We consider in detail the dynamics between different EV types (BEV, PHEV and FCV), which in previous research has been found to be a key interaction which may require policy intervention to overcome.
Although model-based studies may be limited in their application towards market forecasting, due to future uncertainties, the strength of such research lies within the power to compare similar scenarios and vary individual assumptions, allowing the researcher to identify and isolate triggers of change, in order to glean light on previously unconsidered system feedbacks that may suppress or support technology transition. We hope our results will assist not only the development of EU level policy but also member states in the development of their national policy frameworks for alternative fuels.
Association for European Transport