Consolidated Calibration of Dutch National and Four Regional Models- Recent Developments
Dusica Krstic-Joksimovic, Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Rik Van Grol, Significance
This paper deals with the recent developments in calibration of the Dutch national and regional models that forecast the long term future of mobility in general and the traffic and transport conditions in particular
This paper deals with the recent developments of the Dutch national and regional models that forecast the long term future of mobility in general and the traffic and transport conditions in particular. The models are used for two main purposes: a) answering policy questions regarding e.g. major infrastructure investments, and b) assessing the effect of regional infrastructure projects in the exploration and planning phase.
The focus of this paper is on the latest developments in calibration of the new base year for the model, the generation and improvement of the input data for calibration corresponding to this new base year as well as quality assessment of the models. Next to renewed efforts in keeping the models up-to-date (the time between the base year and the moment the models are available is reduced) there have also been a number of other model improvements.
The most significant calibration improvements are: improvement of modeling of patterns of ‘’wish demand’’ and the traffic networks in the big cities, harmonization of the capacities of the traffic networks according to the recent highway capacity manual, significant improvement of the quality of the public transport data. With regard to the improvement of the model techniques, the calibration process of the base year matrices is adapted (using traffic accounts as well as screen line information), better controlled and documented to assure quality. Further improvements have been made in the modeling of traffic traveling abroad (besides Schiphol airport all other significant regional airports are now included in the model).
The development of strategic models covering the whole country is a very complex undertaking in terms of project organization, collaboration of different stakeholders, accommodation of opposite interests of involved parties, etc. In such a project the high level of collaboration of different stakeholders is needed. Additionally, a quality control of the model as whole (as well as the parts of the model) is improved to ensure that every improvement or update of the model and information is reliable.
In the paper the structure of models for the national and regional level is explained. Next, the most important innovations and improvements in comparison with the previous version of the models are described. Further, the process of quality assessment in the project as well as the process of collaboration of different stakeholders is outlined. Finally, some preliminary examples will be used to illustrate the improvements of the updated model system.
Association for European Transport