Analysing the Modal Shift to Rail Potential Within the Long-distance Passenger Travel Market in Germany
Christian Winkler, DLR - Institute of Transport Research, Falko Nordenholz, DLR - Institute of Transport Reseach, Wolfram Knörr, Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (ifeu)
The research presented in this paper aims at investigating the impact of governmental measures on the rail transport system on modal shift, CO2- emissions and final energy consumption in the transport sector in Germany in 2030.
The German Federal Government has set ambitious targets in climate protection. This also includes considerable CO2 reduction in the transport sector, which is a significant greenhouse gas emitting and final energy consuming sector. Specifically long-distance mobility (more than 100 kilometres) has to be considered for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and final energy consumption. This part of the passenger transport market is of great importance, since it constitutes a large proportion of passenger-mileage in Germany. The predominant proportion of long-distance passenger rail transport services is operated by electrified trains. Therefore, the railway system is predestined to become an important and promising component of a sustainable transport system.
This paper is based on a recently finished study, carried out by the authors on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). The study identified measures for making long-distance passenger rail transport system in Germany more attractive and investigated the impacts of these measures on modal shift, CO2 emissions and final energy consumption in the transport sector in the year 2030.
The paper shows the study methodology and its main findings. It starts with results from a literature review to identify and structure possible measures that could substantially increase the attractiveness of the long-distance rail transport system. In particular, concepts and alternative approaches from other European countries were of great importance. Building on this, three different scenarios are determined. The first scenario includes only measures reducing travel times, which are realisable by exploiting train speed potentials. The second scenario is defined by reduced fares. Reductions can be achieved by reducing taxes and duties on a level comparable to other European countries. The last scenario is a combination of the first two ones and represents the maximal scenario.
The impact on modal shift for long-distance passenger travel market is determined by a nationwide passenger transport model. The model is differentiated by four means and six trip purposes. Additionally, the model is spatially divided into 412 traffic analysis zones that match possible origins and destinations within Germany. Following the discussion of results of modelling travel demand, decreases in CO2 emissions and final energy consumption are calculated by an emission model. Finally, recommendations for actions are introduced and discussed.
Association for European Transport