The Impact of E-shopping on Personal Mobility: a Longitudinal Analysis
Olga Huibregtse, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, George Gelauff, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, Sascha Hoogendoorn-Lanser, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
There have been many speculations on the impact of e-shopping on personal mobility, whether mobility will increase, decrease or whether there will be no effect. We will analyze this impact using data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel.
THE IMPACT OF E-SHOPPING ON PERSONAL MOBILITY: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS
Olga Huibregtse, George Gelauff, Eline Scheepers, Hans Wüst and Sascha Hoogendoorn-Lanser
KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
Abstract submitted for the 44th European Transport Conference
E-shopping has become increasingly common for many people. In The Netherlands, the number of residents that shopped online increased to 10.6 million - 63% of the total population - in 2014 (Statistics, Netherlands 2015). Their frequency of online shopping increased as well. There have been many speculations on the impact of e-shopping on personal mobility, whether mobility will increase, decrease or whether there will be no effect. Rotem-Mindali and Weltevreden (2013) give a comprehensive overview of studies on this impact. The empirical studies they are referring to mainly support the hypothesis that e-shopping reduces shopping mobility. These results are often based on questionnaires asking the respondent to give an indication of the impact.
The number of hypothesis on the impact of e-shopping on personal mobility illustrates the complexity of the topic. Lyons (2015) states more generally the difficulty in establishing the net consequence of the motor age for the digital age and vice versa. We will contribute to the discussion on the relation between e-shopping and personal mobility by analyzing this relation at a deeper level. Therefore, we use longitudinal data derived from questionnaires and travel diaries. This enables us to study the following topics:
• the impact both on all personal mobility (including shopping, but also trips to the post office for example) and on shopping mobility in particular,
• the particular mobility impact: either changes in the number of trips or the distance travelled,
• differences related to product differentiation,
• differences related to personal and household characteristics,
• similarities and differences between the perceived changes in mobility and changes in mobility derived from travel diaries.
We will analyse these topics using recently collected data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel (in Dutch: Mobiliteitspanel Nederland, MPN). The MPN is a longitudinal household panel that has been set-up with the following objectives:
• to study the short-run and long-run dynamics in travel behavior of Dutch individuals and their households, and
• to determine how changes in personal and household characteristics and in other travel-related factors (e.g. economic crisis, reduced taxes on sustainable transport, changes in land-use or increased availability and use of ICT) correlate with changes in travel behavior.
We refer to Hoogendoorn-Lanser et al. (2014) for more information about the MPN.
In this paper, we use reported trips collected with three-day travel diaries as well as personal characteristics, household characteristics and e-shopping information collected by several questionnaires. Apart from information about reported shopping trips, respondents were also asked about the ways in which online shopping had changed their shopping behavior and the associated mobility (perceived changes in shopping mobility).
The paper will discuss all above-mentioned topics. Here, we give a preview of some results:
• People that indicated that they shopped online at least four days a week more often did not travel for shopping during the three-diary days than people that indicated they shopped online less frequently.
• Out of our sample, 17% of the people reported that they shopped online more frequently than a year ago, while 2% reported that they shopped online less frequently than a year ago (comparing 2013 with 2014).
• 22% of the people that reported that they shopped online more frequently than a year ago reported that because of this they made less trips than the year before. However, no significant differences were found in the number of reported shopping trips when these people were compared with the other respondents.
The paper will give more insights in the impact of e-shopping on personal mobility. We will discuss all above-mentioned topics. When writing this abstract, only two years (2013 and 2014) of MPN data were available. In the full paper however, the analysis will be expanded with the data from the third wave (2015).
Hoogendoorn-Lanser, S., N. Schaap & M.-J. Olde Kalter (2015). The Netherlands Mobility Panel: An innovative design approach for web-based longitudinal travel data collection. 10th International Conference on Transport Survey Methods, Transportation Research Procedia, 11, pp 311-329.
Lyons, G. (2015). Transport's digital age transition. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 8 (2), pp 1-19.
Rotem-Mindali, O. and Weltevreden W.J. (2013). Transport effects of e-commerce: what can be learned after years of research? Transportation, 40 (5), pp 867-885.
Statistics Netherlands (2015). ICT, knowledge and economy. The Hague: Statistics Netherlands.
Association for European Transport