Contribution to the European Discussion of Project Appraisal: The German FTIP 2030 Case
Christoph Walther, PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG and Bauhaus University Weimar, Alexander Dahl, PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Volker Wassmuth, PTV Transport Consult GmbH
In 2016 the revision of the German Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (FTIP 2030) was completed. The paper describes major methodical changes and focusses on those parts of the methodology that have been developed since the ETC 2014.
At the ETC 2014 one of the authors already presented results of the appraisal method improvements achieved so far. This presentation mainly dealt with selected revisions of its cost-benefit-analysis (CBA).
The abstract at hand gives an overview about methodological refinements in general and describes those main aspects and indicators in detail that were missing or only discussed briefly at ETC 2014. Finally the abstract assesses a fictional infrastructure project exemplarily based both on the new and the previous approach of the FTIP. This gives evidence on the impacts of the FTIP 2030 approach.
Latest enhancements of CBA
Beside the enhancements discussed in the presentation at the ETC 2014 the following aspects of the CBA had been modified to a noteworthy extent. The paper explains in this context
• the assessment of travel and transport time savings,
• the integration of induced traffic and changes of mode choice into the concept of CBA,
• the consideration of changes in reliability of rail transport,
• the valuation of traffic safety and
• the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure over life time.
Assessment of travel and transport time savings
In passenger transport the Value of Travel Time (VOT) is determined as a function of the travel distance. With increasing travel distance between origin and destination the VOT increases. Statistically sound values were derived from surveys for different trip purposes. The reported VOT in commercial passenger transport were considered to be underestimated as travellers do obviously not take into account the impacts of additional travel times on production, business processes etc. Therefore cost rates for commercial passenger transport finally were chosen to be in line with labour costs. Furthermore it was decided to take into account - in line with international practice - even very small time savings.
The FTIP 2030 evaluates transport time savings in freight transport more comprehensively. Beside others decreased capital costs and logistic advantages on the receiver’s side due to reduced transport time are considered.
Integration of induced traffic and changes of mode choice into the concept of CBA
In case of an improvement of a railway line it may be observed that transport users change from road to rail although the railway line is still slower than going by car. In that case resource consumption may be higher after the project is implemented and the observed changes in terms of transport mode choice would be assessed negatively.
The FTIP sticks to the monetary valuation based on resource consumption. The aforementioned inconsistencies are avoided by introducing an additional indicator, the so-called “implicit benefit difference”. This indicator quantifies those benefits which arise out of the changed traffic behaviour and which are not covered by indicators dealing with travel time and user costs.
The full paper will derive this approach. Furthermore it will compare this approach to the concept of consumers and producers surplus which considers impacts of induced and diverted traffic by applying the “rule of half”.
Assessing changes in reliability of rail transport
The presentation at ETC 2014 focused on the concept of standard deviation for measuring reliability in the road sector. In the meantime analyses have been finalised and put into practice concerning the rail system. Approaches like punctuality and mean delay of delayed transport have been tested and an assessment procedure has been developed. Naturally, this approach includes a valuation of changes in reliability. For rail freight transport this valuation depends on different characteristics for each relation.
Valuation of traffic safety
In Germany, accident cost rates include replacement costs, costs due to loss of resources and components for considering immaterial damages. In contrast to other countries, the latter component was not considered in any CBA approach for assessing transport infrastructure projects in Germany until FTIP 2030.
Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure
Previous approaches of FTIP only considered greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the operation of vehicles, vessels and trains. A recently completed research project quantifies that constructing, operating and deconstructing transport infrastructure entails a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore FTIP 2030 includes an additional indicator assessing these types of greenhouse gas emissions.
We will demonstrate the impacts of the methodological improvements of the FTIP based on a fictional infrastructure project. For this purpose the project will be assessed by both, the previous and the current CBA approach of the FTIP. To provide a deeper insight, impacts of the adaption of different indicators and combinations of indicators on project results will be shown and discussed.
Association for European Transport