Development of a Multimodal Transport Chain Choice Model for Container Transport for BasGoed
Michiel De Bok, Significance, Gerard De Jong, Significance, Lóri Tavasszy, Delft University of Technology
The paper discusses the development of a module for multimodal transport for container transport for the Dutch strategic freight transport model BasGoed. Model structure, data, estimations and test results are presented, including elasticities.
Development of a multimodal transport chain choice model for container transport for BasGoed
Michiel de Bok, Gerard de Jong (Significance)
Lóri Tavasszy (Delft University of Technology)
Jaco van Meijeren, Igor Davydenko (TNO)
Michiel Benjamins (Demis)
Noortje Groot, Onno Miete, Monique van den Berg (Rijkswaterstaat)
This paper addresses the development of a new module for multimodal transport chains for modelling container transport within the Dutch strategic freight transport model BasGoed. The existing BasGoed model simulates the separate transport legs in multimodal transport chains individually. In reality a significant volume of transport is part of multimodal transport chains, in particular for port-related containerised transport. Decision-making about transport modes takes place at the level of transport chains between the final origin and destination. Our objective was to specify a corridor choice model for container transport that addresses multimodal transport chains and enables an analysis of the impacts of new multimodal terminals within a strategic freight transport model.
Since no directly observed PC data are available, a synthetic dataset was constructed with container flows between locations of production and consumption, using uni-modal observed transport data. Main assumption in this data processing is that each container transported by rail or barge requires a road leg at the side of destination and/or origin, to complete the multimodal transport chain.
The choice model distinguishes between different types of unimodal, bi-modal or trimodal transport chains, depending on whether the transport chain is port-related. A direct road chain is available between each production and consumption combination; direct barge or rail transport is only available between seaports. A route enumeration module is applied to generate a choice set for each observed uni- or multimodal container transport.
Based on the ‘observed’ PC flows and route choice sets, discrete choice models were estimated with different model structures. The best choice model that was found was a multinomial logit model, segmented by port dependency. The elasticities of the model are compared to elasticities from literature.
Association for European Transport