Is There Enough Capacity?:Stochastic Analysis of the Transition from Full Freighters to Belly Cargo of KLM
Miguel Mujica Mota, Aviation Academy,Amsterdam U. Of Applied Sciences, Abdel El Makhloufi, Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences
The paper presents the results of a project we performed for KLM cargo regarding the capacity impact of changing the operation procedure of full freighters.
KLM has revealed the plan to downsize the full-freight cargo fleet in Schiphol Airport, for that reason the company requires to explore the potential of moving the cargo transported by the Full freighters into the bellies of the passenger flights. In the current study, the authors analyze the implications of that decision by using the public information. Furthermore, the authors incorporated Montecarlo Simulation in order to foreseen also the implications of the modifications in the load factor of the fleet which might become a key element for the success or failure of the project. We ran different scenarios taking into consideration the traffic, the load factors and how the transition towards the Belly2Belly operation should impact the current operation of Schiphol. Our study show that the first impact will be in the traffic of commercial flights, the traffic of Schiphol should match the destinations and frequency of flights in order to absorb the cargo from The Netherlands to the rest of the world. If we also put variability into the study we can identify also the risks of delaying some cargo with the correspondent implications. The results are just the first step for rising the discussion on how to make the transition and to answer the question if KLM is able to absorb the cargo via more frequencies or by changing partially the fleet. In addition we detected that the load factors of the commercial passenger traffic is able to absorb some cargo, however the question to answer would be if that spare space is enough for making the 100% transition.
Association for European Transport