Crossrail Baseline Evaluation

Crossrail Baseline Evaluation


Lynne Miles, Arup


An evaluation of the impacts of Crossrail in transport, environmental and wider economic terms. This baseline study runs to 2019 and emerging findings presented will focus on pre-opening property impacts as well as construction impacts.


Arup with Volterra and the Professor Stephen Gibbons are currently commissioned by Transport for London and the UK Department for Transport to carry out a baseline evaluation of the impact of Crossrail on the areas it serves, and on the London and South East economy more broadly. Crossrail is the biggest investment in London transport in a generation, costing £15 billion and adding 10% to network capacity. It is expected to generate significant wider economic benefits by expanding the effective labour market catchment of central London businesses.

The scope of the evaluation covers transport, environmental and wider economic benefits. ‎The team are commissioned to develop the methodology for evaluation, collect baseline data and create bespoke data storage and visualisation capability for around 100 impact indicators. As well as baselining impacts pre-opening, the team will carry out an evaluation of the impact to date of Crossrail on commercial and residential property values, and an evaluation of construction impacts. It will study impacts at line-wide level, and at a number of case study stations.
The approach and methodology are informed by the findings of the recent review of transport's impact on local economic growth by the What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth. This found that whilst there are good theoretical reasons to be believe that transport infrastructure investment may catalyse wider economic benefits which could exceed the conventional journey time savings, there is a lack of high quality quantitative evaluation evidence to demonstrate this impact.

The approach to evaluating the impacts of Crossrail will, where possible, use econometric approaches to define impacts on employment, productivity, property and labour markets. Bespoke data collection will be undertaken in stations to plug gaps in secondary data sources and allow a fuller understanding of the impact of Crossrail on passenger routeing choices.

The study runs from 2016 to 2019. Crossrail will open for through-running trains in December 2018. The paper introducing the study and the proposed methodology for the ex-post evaluation and will focus on presenting emerging findings on pre-opening property impacts as well as construction impacts.


Association for European Transport