Carbon-Dioxide Emissions from Travel and Freight in IEA Countries: Past and Future
Concern has been expressed nevertheless in many government and private studies over the costs of externalities from transportation, which include safety, air, water, and noise pollution, competition for urban space, balance of payments problems and risks
One of these problems, though arguably of less impact in monetary terms, is the emission of green_house gases (GHG), such as CO2 (IPCC 1990; UM 1991,3; Houghton 1994; CEC 1995b; LrlVI 1991; UM 1993; VROM 1996a, 1996b; KOMKOM 1997; NRC 1997; Trafik Ministe
One of these problems, though arguably of less impact in monetary terms, is the emission of green_house gases (GHG), such as CO2 (IPCC 1990; UM 1991,3; Houghton 1994; CEC 1995b; LrlVI 1991; UM 1993; VROM 1996a, 1996b; KOMKOM 1997; NRC 1997; Trafik Ministerinm 1997). CO2 emissions from travel (and freight) have increased in most industrialised countries faster than population, and in many cases as rapidly than gross domestic product (GDP) (Schipper 1996; IEA 1997a). Indeed, in virtually all regions of the world, CO2 emissions from transport are rising relative to total emissions. Policy makers have discovered this, and are asking why? This paper reviews some of the factors driving that increase. We acknowledge the importance of other sources of air pollution, as well as the other wide range externalities, but we focus only on CO2 in this review.
Whatever the "real" external costs of each mode, all studies suggest that the values attached to the externality for carbon emissions alone tend to be low compared to those associated with other problems. Hence this suggests that CO2 by itself may not "felt" as a strong stimulus for change, but that changes to deal with the other problems may affect traffic, and therefore CO2 emissions perhaps even profoundly. While the other externalities in transportation may be more serious than CO2, they also threaten us today and in that way lead to feedbacks, by which technologies and policies could be brought to bear to reduce the problems. But CO2 emissions present no obvious problem for the present generations. Were CO2 emissions not increasing, authorities could wait for more information on possible damages before taking action. But the increases are interial and may be hard to reign in, hence the interest in a better understanding of the factors underlying the increases. Moreover policy makers are under pressure from other constituencies (domestic energy consumers., the power generation sector and industry) to 'hit' transportation's rising share of CO2 emissions. As a result, policy makers re asking why emissions are rising the transport sector? This brief review addresses the main trends in personal and goods transport, and then reviews some of the measures being taken to restrain emissions, building on a new IEA book "Energy Policy Making for Transport and Climate Change".
MALCOLM BUCHANAN AND ANDREW EDWARDS AND NICK FREER AND COLIN BUCHANAN AND PARTNERS
Association for European Transport