A Passenger Station Choice Model for the British Rail Network
ADCOCK S J, TCI Operational Research, UK
Many demand models for the rail network in Britain tend to consider passenger demand in terms of station-to-station flows, rather than passengers' entire journeys. With increased levels of car ownership, passengers are prepared to travel considerable dist
Many demand models for the rail network in Britain tend to consider passenger demand in terms of station-to-station flows, rather than passengers' entire journeys. With increased levels of car ownership, passengers are prepared to travel considerable distances to stations, giving them a range of possible stations to choose from. Rail privatisation has meant that this may involve a choice of competing rail operators - with a consequently greater interest in understanding the way in which rail demand is shared between competing stations.
This paper describes research to investigate the factors which determine a rail passenger's choice of station, and to provide estimates of the relative importance placed on these factors in choosing a station. Application of these results enables us to forecast abstraction of passengers between stations in response to service changes, as well as providing an approach to predict the effect on demand of demographic changes.
The station choice model is based on survey data recording where passengers start and complete their overall journeys and their chosen rail leg. The data covers the whole of the mainline and London Underground networks and comprises several hundred thousand passenger records. Knowing the start and end locations enables us to identify alternative rail legs which the passenger could reasonably have chosen. The possible journeys are then assessed in terms of the journey time, service frequency, number of interchanges and the access and egress distances. Finally, a logit model is constructed to reveal the relative importance placed on each journey characteristic. The inclusion of tube alternatives allows an assessment of how passengers respond to the qualitative differences between rail and London Underground travel.
Association for European Transport