Modelling Build-up of Demand for New Transport Infrastructure



Modelling Build-up of Demand for New Transport Infrastructure

Authors

SWANSON J, KINCAID I, Steer Davies Gleave Ltd and HEWITT S, Eurostar, UK

Description

This paper is about modelling the build-up of demand for new transport inf~astfiacture, a topic not explicitly addressed by the forecasting models commonly used today. It is based on work carried out for Eurostar UK Ltd (EUKL), who with SNCF and SNCB join

Abstract

This paper is about modelling the build-up of demand for new transport inf~astfiacture, a topic not explicitly addressed by the forecasting models commonly used today. It is based on work carried out for Eurostar UK Ltd (EUKL), who with SNCF and SNCB jointly operate the Eurostar trains through the Channel Tunnel between London and Paris and Brussels. A definition of build-up is given, with a discussion about why it is important. A model is described, and its outputs compared to actual demand build- up on the Eurostar service in the period since the Tunnel opened. A description of how the model may be used in future concludes the paper.

Publisher

Association for European Transport