Freight Transportation System Modelling: Chains, Chains and Chains
TAVASSZY L A, VAN DER VLIST M J M, TNO Inro, HASELEN H W J, The Netherlands Economic Institute and VAN DER REST H, AVV, Ministry of Transport, The Netherlands
Private and public decisionmakers more and more depend on strategic information on expected future development of freight flows. With the dynamics of global logistics processes in mind, the required strategic information is no longer limited to forecasts
Private and public decisionmakers more and more depend on strategic information on expected future development of freight flows. With the dynamics of global logistics processes in mind, the required strategic information is no longer limited to forecasts of the use of the transport system in a specific year in the future, under well defined circumstances. In order to aid strategic management and peliey analysis, insight is needed in trends and changes in these trends throughout the years.
This implies that the relations between transport and the economy have to be wen understood, ineloding the appropriate feedbacks between markets for goods and services at different levels. The development of decision support systems should aid this understanding, in particular when strategic management or public policy analysis requires a systematic sketch of the impacts of certain changes in the system. Here, the term "logistic and transport system" should be clarified. It denotes the economic activities underlying the complete supply chain, including production, sales and sourcing, inventory and transport.
Note also that the use of "system" implies that the information about these activities should concern structural issues (about the elements of the system like infraslructure and regions), Innetional issues (related to economic choice behaviour) and issues related to the dyt~amies of the markets concerned. The policy issues are treated in more detail in the following section.
The paper describes the background and the intermediate results of a project aimed at the development of a new model for public and private decision makers in the transport and logistics sector. The first version of the model was conslrueted as a joint effort of the Transport Research Centre of the Ministry of Transport and the research orgaulsafions NEI (Netherlands Economic Institute) and TNO Inro. The name of the model is SMILE (Strategic Model for Integrated Logistic Evaluations).
We discuss the design of the model, covering the specification of the underlying models, the interface by means of which scenarios in SMILE can be prepared, and the databases. Also, applicability of this model for exploring the possible effects of transport policy and changes in the logistic organisation of firms is discussed.
Association for European Transport