Validation of Rail Demand Forecasts Generated by Competing Stated Preference and Revealed Preference Models: Observations Based on Low Cost Panel and Conventional Surveys.



Validation of Rail Demand Forecasts Generated by Competing Stated Preference and Revealed Preference Models: Observations Based on Low Cost Panel and Conventional Surveys.

Authors

SMYTH A W and HARRON R J, University of Ulster at Jordanstown, UK

Description

The city of Belfast has recently witnessed the opening of two new rail projects including a new city centre station. The decision to proceed with these projects was informed by two modelling exercises undertaken in the late 1980's involving separate execu

Abstract

The city of Belfast has recently witnessed the opening of two new rail projects including a new city centre station. The decision to proceed with these projects was informed by two modelling exercises undertaken in the late 1980's involving separate execution of revealed preference(RP) and stated preference(SP) procedures. In the absence of research funds, the University of Ulster's Transport Research Group(TRG) is undertaking a low cost monitoring and evaluation study to assess the potential impacts of the schemes.

Part of the exercise involves attempting to validate the modal forecasts with particular reference to the SP procedures. The process of data collection associated with the impact study included development of panel data sets as well as a variety of other surveys. Low cost data collection procedures, dictated by funding, were employed.

This paper will consider not only travel behaviour change but review the degree of accuracy in the original level of service assumptions as well as background conditions. It will also review issues of sample design and bias.

Publisher

Association for European Transport