Improved Methods for Trip Generation



Improved Methods for Trip Generation

Authors

DALY A, Hague Consulting Group, The Netherlands

Description

The first stage in the classical 'four stage' travel demand modelling is that of trip generation, predicting the total number of trips that will be generated in each zone of the study area. The classical methods for this stage of the modelling, category a

Abstract

The first stage in the classical 'four stage' travel demand modelling is that of trip generation, predicting the total number of trips that will be generated in each zone of the study area. The classical methods for this stage of the modelling, category analysis and zonal or household regression, do not allow for the possibility that the numbers of trips may be influenced by the quality of the transport networks. These methods also suffer from specific problems as regards their treatment of data and responsiveness to other transport policy and exogenous trends.

This paper describes improved methods for forecasting the total numbers of trips generated by an area. Both the need to introduce a dependence on accessibility - i.e. that the number of trips made depends on the quality of the transport networks - and the problems of the classical methods are discussed. A suitable modelling framework, linked to activity analyses and to a consistent measurement of accessibility, is introduced. The framework begins to introduce an explanation of trip generation which permits the construction of models which can claim to be more than just fitted curves. Practical modeiling methods are presented, together with results from a number of studies that illustrate the real possibilities that exist for improving this part of model systems.

Publisher

Association for European Transport