Planning Modal Shift to Public Transport
FLEMING N and HYDE C, London Transport, UK
Over the past few years there has been increasing recognition of the value of carrying a greater share of the travel market on public transport. To achieve a significant modal shift from private to public modes requires an understanding of the policies an
Over the past few years there has been increasing recognition of the value of carrying a greater share of the travel market on public transport. To achieve a significant modal shift from private to public modes requires an understanding of the policies and key determinants that influence demand. This can then steer progress towards a planning and policy environment which would encourage a greater public transport modal share. Focusing on London, but also by comparison with other areas, this paper seeks to identify the factors that have an influence on modal share with a view to setfmg out a strategy.
The current situation in London is taken as a starting point, looking at the historic public transport performance, the demand drivers, and the potential for policy measures.
The areas to be assessed include: commuting modes; employment; population; income; car ownership, fares & ticketing; costs & subsidy; competition (deregulation/franchising). Where data is available, London will be compared with other areas. Some of the themes which were raised in a recent London Transport (LT) report, Buses in London~ will be developed and the scope will be broadened to cover rail.
Indications of potential policy can be made from analysis of long term performance. This can be directly, where policy locally has been shown to work and indirectly, where circumstances have led to an environment which benefits public transport. Following this consideration will be given to the scale that public transport's provision will need to be in the future to ensure a modal shift is achieved. To do this projections of the future levels of demand drivers are used to produce broad forecasts of total transport demand.
This paper is very much the first stage in planning modal shift. It is principally about understanding how we got to where we are presently and what we can understand from this to help us get to where we want to be.
Association for European Transport