Public Transport Demand Analysis: a Non-linear Time-series Model for Stockholm Region



Public Transport Demand Analysis: a Non-linear Time-series Model for Stockholm Region

Authors

TEGNER G, LONCAR-LUCASSI V, NILSSON C, TRANSEK Consultants and HOLMBERG I, Gothenburg University, Sweden

Description

This project deals with the demand for public transport trips by using aggregate time- series monthly data over a long-range time period (1973-1996). The research task is to test a two-step procedure, where the mode-of-payment forms an aggregate logit sub

Abstract

This project deals with the demand for public transport trips by using aggregate time- series monthly data over a long-range time period (1973-1996). The research task is to test a two-step procedure, where the mode-of-payment forms an aggregate logit sub- model, which is linked to the main demand model for public transport trips by a utility term. It also aims at testing various non-linear functional forms of the demand model.

Recent research findings show a broad spectrum of explanatory factors affecting public transport patronage, not only prices and travel times. The objective is to estimate which factors influences demand. By using non-linear statistical methods the magnitude of the influence of these factors will be esftmated. This paper deals with such a model for the Stockholm region, which has been estimated in spring 1998. The following types of de- pendent and explanatory variables will be examined:

* Ticket sales & Public transport trips data

* Ticket validity variables

* Fares, Prices and other Public transport events variables

* Activity variables

* Car competition & road network data

* Calendar & Climate data

* Public transport supply variables.

The Swedish Transport and Communications Research Board (KFB) and the Stockholm County Council Regional Planning and Urban Transportation Office has funded this re- search project.

A more elaborate version of this paper (45 pages) was presented at the Swedish Research Conference: "Economics and Institutions of Transport", May 25th -27th, 1998, at the Centre for Transportation and Society (CTS), in Borl~uge, Sweden (Tegn6r et.al, 1998)

Publisher

Association for European Transport