Models of Decision Making: a Useful Approach



Models of Decision Making: a Useful Approach

Authors

BERVELING J, Ministry of Transport (AVV), BLOM U, B&A Group, The Netherlands

Description

The anticipatory research project "Decision making in transport policy" of the Transport Research Centre (AVV) has been completed by the end of 1997. The aim of this project was to explore the possible uses of formal decision making models for the Dutch M

Abstract

The anticipatory research project "Decision making in transport policy" of the Transport Research Centre (AVV) has been completed by the end of 1997. The aim of this project was to explore the possible uses of formal decision making models for the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. This model-based approach to decision making involves quantifying selected information. The information is then to simulate a forthcoming decision making process with the help of a computer model. The output of the simulation should allow the researchers to predict the most likely results of the decision making and should also provide insights into the most likely course of the decision making process.

It turned out to be difficult to select a decision making process as a subject for the model. When a decision process was eventually chosen, the fact that it only involved a single subject (road pricing) meant that it was ouly possible to explore the potential of the method to a limited extent. Nevertheless, by using this example, it could be fairly concluded that the usefulness of the method had been validated. More insight was gained, particularly with regard to the potential for anticipating the results of a decision-making process and for seeing where the bottlenecks might lie.

Publisher

Association for European Transport