ANTONIN: a Forecasting Model for Travel Demand in the Lie-de-France



ANTONIN: a Forecasting Model for Travel Demand in the Lie-de-France

Authors

GUNN H F and TUINENGA J G, Hague Consulting Group, The Netherlands ALLOUCHE J F and DEBRINCAT L, Syndicat des Transports Parisiens, France

Description

During 1994 and 1995, the Syndicat des Transports Parisiens commissioned Hague Consulting Group to undertake the work of establishing a travel demand forecasting system for the lie de France, essentially the enlarged Paris region. The resulting model syst

Abstract

During 1994 and 1995, the Syndicat des Transports Parisiens commissioned Hague Consulting Group to undertake the work of establishing a travel demand forecasting system for the lie de France, essentially the enlarged Paris region. The resulting model system (ANTONIN, Analysis of Transport Organisation and New Infrastructure) has since been in use internally in the course of validation and refinement studies, and has been provided externally to a number of planning studies requiring detailed forecasts for the Paris.region. The current development of the system is judged such that ANTONIN can now be presented for wider Use.

The purpose of this paper is to outline the background to the model development, the nature of the forecasts that were required, and the implications this has had for the details of the model system developed. The focus on multiple transport networks with a high level of market segmentation (as between traveller types and journey purposes) strongly emphasised the need for a comparable high level of disaggregation in the specification, estimation and application of the system.

This requirement was met by the adoption and extension of a general disaggregate forecasting model structure developed by HCG, resulting in the ANTONIN system. This structure, with local var/ations, is also used for the Dutch national/regional models, the Stockholm system and (to a limited extent) in Dublin. It is also the structure being developed in Sydney.

Key model elasticities from ANTONEN are presented, along with comparisons of the model system with other current forecasting systems for large urbanised areas. A discussion of the validation process is also included.

The remainder of the paper is set out in six sections; Section 2 sets out the requirements for the model system, in terms era the requirements of the STP, together with a broad description of the study area and its transport networks. Section 3 analyses the implications for Market Segmentation within the model, section 4 setting out the overall Model Smlcture. Section 5 deals with the comparison with similar models (we have chosen the models for San Francisco, Stockholm, an early London model, the Dutch national/regional system and the Dublin models). Section 6 provides some information on system elasticities, with section 7 setting out our conclusions and reeommendations.

Publisher

Association for European Transport