Traffic and Revenue Forecasting for Privately Funded Transport Projects



Traffic and Revenue Forecasting for Privately Funded Transport Projects

Authors

BRETT A and SNELSON P, W S Atldns Consultants, UK

Description

The private sector has an increasing role in the provision and financing of transport projects. This has introduced new requirements for the processes needed in forecasting revenue streams associated with such projects. In many cases most or all of the re

Abstract

The private sector has an increasing role in the provision and financing of transport projects. This has introduced new requirements for the processes needed in forecasting revenue streams associated with such projects. In many cases most or all of the revenue will be derived directly from patronage through fares, direct toils or shadow toll systems. Thus considerable emphasis is placed upon the quality of the patronage forecasting for such projects. In addition to a 'central case' forecast, the private sector requires detailed analysis of risks associated with the project and quantification of outcomes for a specified probability range or ranges. There have been a number of well publicised cases where schemes have failed substantially to achieve forecast patronage levels, including Eurotuunel, South Yorkshire Supertram and a number of toll road projects in Europe, the USA and elsewhere. Such examples have resulted in private sector investment agencies becoming increasingly concerned with regard to the quality of current transport patronage forecasting. This paper discusses a number of recent and current audit and monitoring projects undertaken by the authors for privately funded transport schemes. These have shown wide variation in the techniques used and the quality of the results achieved. The paper concludes by providing a set of guidelines forming a 'best practice' guide for the patronage forecasting of such transport projects. These guidelines recognise the requirements of different project types (e.g. road or public transport schemes), project sizes and funding arrangements.

Publisher

Association for European Transport