European Transport Forecasts for 2020: the STREAMS Model Results



European Transport Forecasts for 2020: the STREAMS Model Results

Authors

LEITHAM S, DOWNING J, Martial Eehenique and Partners, UK, MARTINO A and FIORELLO D, TRT Trasporti e Territorio Srl, Italy

Description

This paper describes the implementation of the STREAMS Europe wide multi-modal strategic transport model. The model combines freight and passenger demand elements with a network representation and traffic assignment of all modes across the EU15. The paper

Abstract

This paper describes the implementation of the STREAMS Europe wide multi-modal strategic transport model. The model combines freight and passenger demand elements with a network representation and traffic assignment of all modes across the EU15. The paper outlines the overall modelling approach, and reports on the model design, in addition to presenting a 1994 base year validation and the results of a reference ('business as usual') forecast for transport volumes in the EU15 in 2020.

The model design incorporates the main causal relationships affecting the demand for transport. The detailed multi-modal approach, coupled with a full representation of costs and tariffs, allows a wide range of policies to be tested including the impact of differential price changes between modes. The regional economic component of the model is based on an Input-Output approach, which together with a spatial allocation procedure forecasts the demand for freight movements. The demand for passenger travel is estimated using trip rates, established from European countries' National Travel Surveys (NTS), applied to highly disaggregated population groups (by demographic, socio-economic and car availability groups). All trips are included in the modelling structure using a 'dummy' network to accommodate the large number of intrazonal trips. The model undertakes modal split and assigns the traffic to a multi-modal transport network.

The paper discusses the main results of the STREAMS project. This inehides forecasts for 2020 of the overall demand for transport by mode and distance, and an indication of the likely network loading associated with this transport demand.

Publisher

Association for European Transport